A Wave of Refis Is Coming: How to Handle 10× Volume Without Hiring 10× Staff
- Pamela Hogan
- Sep 16
- 4 min read
When I see a decent swell in the surf forecast, I plan ahead so I can make the most of it — checking my gear, choosing the right board, hydrating, and getting plenty of rest. The mortgage market is facing its own perfect swell: rates are falling and refinance demand is rising. So what are you doing to get ready for it? What you do today can help you make the most of this opportunity.
The Refi Opportunity: What the Latest Data Shows
Here's the forecast: 30-year fixed mortgage rates recently fell to an 11-month low, per MBA data, about 6.49% for the week ending Sept. 5. That’s down roughly 60 basis points since mid‐January. That drop has already triggered a surge in mortgage demand: refinance applications jumped ~12% week-over-week.
More broadly, economists are expecting modest further declines in mortgage rates, especially if inflation cools and the Fed begins trimming rates. Some forecasts have rates stabilizing around mid-6s for 30-year loans, with possible dips below that under favorable conditions.
So the bottom line: a wave of mortgage refinance opportunities is coming, especially for borrowers who locked in at higher rates. Branches and LOs who are ready will capture serious business.
Why Most Branches will Struggle in the 2025 Refinance Boom
When volume spikes, weak systems get exposed: Leads slip through the cracks, deals stall in bottlenecks, teams rush to hire extra staff, only to cut them as soon as the wave passes, and referral and lead-gen channels aren’t tracked properly, so ROI stays murky.
Lead leakage & poor follow-up: Without automated lead re-engagement, leads sit cold or fall off the radar.
Conversion bottlenecks: If staff aren’t trained, process isn’t clear, or metrics aren’t visible, it slows everything down.
Over- or under-staffing issues: Hiring a lot just for the boom can blow up payroll when things settle. Hiring too little causes burnout and lost opportunity.
Lack of visibility into referral partner performance: Realtors, Zillow/online leads, partner channels all need separate tracking and ROI measurement.
Poor feedback loops: Not knowing where in the funnel you are losing people (pre-approval → application → clear-to-close) or which partner sources are underperforming.
The 2025 refinance boom presents a massive opportunity—but only for those prepared to handle the surge without breaking their teams.
Improving Mortgage Branch Operations: Best Practices to Scale Without Chaos
The key to handling a refinance surge is operational excellence — clear processes, automation, and real-time visibility. Here’s how top lenders set themselves up to win big in high-volume cycles:
Automate lead re-engagement: Automation keeps old leads warm, milestone updates consistent, and dormant borrowers from slipping away.
Define each stage of the pipeline: Everyone on the team should know what counts as “App Started,” “Docs In,” or “Ready for Underwriting.”
Make dashboards your daily command center: Track leads, conversions, and risks in real time—not once a month.
Staff for flexibility: Cross-training and support roles create flexibility, while a focus on efficiency prevents the cycle of over-hiring and layoffs.
Track partner ROI: Know which referral partners and lead sources actually drive closings, not just volume.
Branches that nail these practices build sustainable systems that work in any market.
How Third Floor Helps Put These Practices into Action
Here’s how Third Floor helps mortgage banks capitalize on the refi boom and what some of our clients are already seeing:
AI Insights: With AI-driven alerts, Third Floor surfaces revenue opportunities hiding in plain sight—leads ready to move, partners ready to refer, and clients ready to refinance.
Automated follow-up & re-engagement campaigns: Keeps leads alive, pulls in leads you “thought were dead” but weren’t fully engaged.
Dashboards at multiple levels: LO dashboards, manager dashboards, milestone tracking (Lead → CTC etc.), and partner performance dashboards make it easy to spot bottlenecks and plan for future staffing needs.
Risk Dashboard: Shows where you're losing opportunity—leads not engaging, pre-approvals not going to contract, or high traffic leads needing manual attention.
Team visibility: Who’s doing what, what’s converting, who needs help. Helps distribute workload, avoid burnout.
Sheehan Branch Booked 15+ Refinance Appointments
The Sheehan Branch of Granite Bank in Bismarck, ND, led by Joe Sheehan, is already seeing results using Third Floor in Q3 2025. In just over a month, automated follow-up campaigns brought 30+ cold leads to life, turning conversations that had gone quiet into fresh applications now moving through the pipeline. In only two weeks, the team also booked 15 refinance meetings, and because the system kept the follow-up consistent, nearly half of those meetings converted directly into new applications.
By using Third Floor’s custom lead development tools, the quality of applications improved by nearly 50%, which meant loan officers were spending less time chasing unqualified files and more time closing deals.
“What Third Floor did for the first time was automate what really gets us loans,” Joe says. “Lead capture and follow-up. That’s what closes deals.”
The branch is leveraging Third Floor’s AI copilot, automated referrals, lead capture landing pages, milestone dashboards, partner performance tracking, and a risk dashboard to identify opportunity losses. With automated follow-up and texting, the system is driving engagement, capture, and conversion across the team.
The Bottom Line
The 2025 refinance boom is real, and it’s moving quickly. Branches that strengthen their operations now will be ready to capture the coming wave. If you want help capturing your share of the 2025 refinance boom, let's talk!